Outlook on peace and development in the horn of Africa: Exploring opportunities for cooperation

The Horn of Africa (HoA), a geographical belt comprising Djibouti, Somalia, Kenya, Ethiopia, and Eritrea, is one of the most turbulent regions in the world. In July 2021, the World Bank reported that the region harbors more than 2.7 million refugees and 6 million internally displaced people that have been subject to prolonged conflict, religious extremism, poor governance, and limited public services to support basic needs. Exasperating these pre-existing governance issues are large-scale environmental phenomena such as climate change which has caused droughts, famine, food scarcity and stifled economic growth with decade-long effects. Much of the region’s fragility is historically rooted in religious and ethnic conflicts dating back to pre-colonial times when religion and ethnicity were highly contested among diverse communities. The HoA countries’ ill-defined borders have catalyzed notable insecurity leading to high-intensity inter-state and civil wars, namely the Somalia-Ethiopia war (1977-1978), the Badme War between Eritrea and Ethiopia (1998-2000), and several border conflicts since the early 2000s. Likewise, other countries in the region such as Sudan, South Sudan, and Uganda have experienced bitter civil wars that led to regime changes.

These conflicts have consumed considerable human life and political attention resulting in state resources being diverted from development endeavors to war efforts. Due to its geostrategic significance beyond the post-colonial era, the HoA was caught in inter-state rivalry between Cold War superpowers that sought to establish influence in this strategic territory that faces oil‐rich Middle Eastern lands and sits along a maritime choke point of global trade. The rise of non-state terrorist actors such as Al-Shabaab which have dominated contemporary conflict dynamics equally contribute to the complexity of the region. Between 2018 to 2019 alone, AOAV’s explosive violence data revealed that Al-Shabaab was responsible for 83% of all civilian casualties in Somalia, 94% of which were targeted by Improvised Explosive Devices. Persistent civilian harm caused by non-state actors has undoubtedly been compounded by the COVID-19 pandemic which has pushed the political and economic capacities of states in the HoA to their limit.

Despite these socio-economic, security and political issues, geopolitical interest in the HoA signals an untapped opportunity. Rising urbanization and per capita income in the region have increased demand for high-value products, technology diversification and cross-border trade, with significant potential to augment entrepreneurship. These trends, if cultivated strategically, could redefine production and consumption characteristics in the region whilst easing an unsustainable reliance on international trading partners for manufactured secondary goods. Furthermore, demonstrations of unprecedented regional cooperation such as the ‘Horn of Africa Initiative’ introduced by Finance Ministers from the HoA countries in October 2019 highlight a collective pathway towards solving challenges faced by the region whilst welcoming prospects for diplomatic cooperation. In alignment with this vision, the ‘Outlook on Peace and Development in the Horn of Africa’ was presented by State Councillor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi on January 6th, 2022, during a press meeting with Kenyan Cabinet Secretary for Foreign Affairs Raychelle Awuor Omamo, in Mombasa. The initiative, inspired by a united vision of peace, seeks to support HoA countries in addressing the triple challenge of security, development, and governance, whilst providing synergies between the Belt and Road Initiative and Africa’s development strategies. China has since appointed a Special Envoy, Xue Bing, for the Horn of Africa Affairs of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to provide the necessary support for this process. During a first visit to the region, Bing revealed China’s intention to sponsor a first of its kind peace conference in the first half of 2022 in an attempt to resolve regional conflict.

The Institute for Strategic Insights and Research (ISIR) has conducted a study that explores opportunities for closer cooperation within the HoA for the mutual benefit of promoting stability through the ‘Outlook on Peace and Development in the Horn of Africa.’ This report provides two valuable propositions. Firstly, it offers critical insight into the measures required for progressive diplomatic engagement with external actors on the continent such as the People’s Republic of China to further the economic development of the region. Secondly, it enables HoA policymakers to better manage prevailing opportunities and risks associated with the ‘Outlook on Peace and Development in the Horn of Africa.

To read the full report click “download.”