TRUMP’S SECOND TERM: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE HORN OF AFRICA

The Horn of Africa remains a critical geopolitical hotspot, influencing global trade, security, and power dynamics. In his second term, U.S. President Donald Trump has introduced a wave of executive orders, reshaping U.S. policy on economic deregulation, military strategy, and immigration, including a potential travel ban affecting countries in the Horn of Africa region.
His administration’s approach outlines a conservative policy agenda to reshape the U.S. government and shifts focus from aid to private-sector investment while deprioritising Africa in favour of strategic interests elsewhere. Meanwhile, China, Russia, and Gulf states are expanding their influence, heightening competition in the Horn of Africa region. Trump’s “transactional” diplomacy risks weakening the U.S.’s influence in the long term, creating security gaps that rival powers could exploit. For the U.S. administration, the challenge remains balancing short-term strategic interests with sustainable engagement to maintain stability in the Horn of Africa region.
In this digest, the ISIR Institute will assess Trump’s second term in the White House and particularly the possible policy implications for the Horn of Africa.