The Ethiopia–Somaliland MoU, One Year On: Prospects, Pitfalls, and Security Implications

In January 2024, Somaliland’s former president, Muse Bihi Abdi, signed an MoU with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, granting Ethiopia access to a coastal strip in exchange for Somaliland’s formal recognition. For Abiy and Muse Bihi, the agreement seemingly fulfilled their respective manifest destinies—Ethiopia’s pursuit of Red Sea access and Somaliland’s quest for statehood. Yet, for the Horn of Africa, it upended an already fragile order, reigniting territorial disputes, unleashing nationalist irredentism, and heightening the risk of regional war.
This commentary situates the MoU within the broader context of Somaliland, Somalia, and Ethiopia’s existential dilemmas, the challenge of deterring hostile non-state actors, and the Horn’s role as a battleground for external geopolitical competition. It calls on policymakers in the Horn, multilateral blocs, and foreign capitals to navigate this zero-sum game with measured engagement—prioritising dialogue, diplomacy, and cooperation to safeguard fragile economies and regional stability.